Deep Dive into assessing the 2025 Global Risks: Economic, Geopolitical, Technological, and Environmental Challenges
Quick Summary:
- Brace Yourself: Beginning of 2025 is bringing a lot more than navel gazing; think AI taking your job and maybe your identity too.
- China’s Economic Slowdown: Picture a global domino effect from the world’s second-largest economy hitting the brakes.
- Geopolitical Jenga: Supply chains, nukes, and social media — all the ways we’re precariously connected.
- Climate’s Got Receipts: More droughts, bigger storms, and oh, did we mention the solar flares?
- Bird Flu Encore?: Nature’s way of reminding us that pandemics weren’t a one-time thing.
I. Introduction
The world is facing several different global risks and challenges going into 2025. Many of these are interconnected and have the potential to compound. From increasing geopolitical tensions and accelerating AI adoption, to fears about the risk of the next pandemic and the impacts of climate change, 2025 has numerous challenges in store that will have significant consequences for the environment, the economy, and society at large.
To tackle these risks, continuous monitoring will need to take place, with regular and thorough assessments of what can be done to mitigate challenges and negative consequences. These efforts must happen on all levels, from individual action to intergovernmental pacts and agreements. With appropriate preparation, mitigation and adaptation strategies, risk reduction can take place.
A. Background
The word “polycrisis” has been used in recent years to refer to a number of interconnected and overlapping issues, all of which are serious on their own, but can compound and expand when combined. The global landscape going into 2025 certainly bears the markings of a polycrisis that we need to understand and prepare for, to ensure global stability and prosperity.
The threats related to artificial intelligence (AI) are some of the most widely talked about now, with numerous challenges coming from its rapid development. Google Cloud researchers have warned that attackers will increasingly use AI for malicious purposes, including hacking, phishing, fraud, deep fakes, and for geopolitical purposes such as bioterrorism, espionage and cybercrime. The existential threat of AI, as well as the ways in which it will shake up employment markets, are also significant.
Another challenge the world is currently facing is a weak Chinese economy, which will have flow-on effects on other economies and markets. With rapid Chinese economic growth from the 90s onwards, a slowdown could have impacts both domestically and economically. Domestically, economic stagnation may result in political instability. Internationally, what Foreign Policy refers to as the “peaking power trap” could result in Chinese action to regain or maintain power in the face of decline, potentially resulting in an invasion of Taiwan or stronger alliances with Russia. The economic consequences alone are sure to affect countries with high levels of economic dependence on China.
Alongside these challenges, the consequences of ongoing climate change, including stronger and more frequent storms, higher temperatures, and broader changes to weather patterns, are likely to have serious global consequences in 2025 and onwards. NASA reports that 90% of global warming is taking place in the ocean. Consequently, warmer ocean temperatures result in storms with higher wind speeds, and higher levels of flooding.
Low rainfall in the US breadbasket region has also led to “Dust Bowl–like losses” in wheat production, with crop losses as high as 37% in 2023, followed by a “flash drought” in 2024 which could lead to higher food prices in 2025. More than 45% of land in the U.S. is currently affected, and 50% of the wheat crop is in danger. A 2023 study found that flash droughts are likely to increase, potentially more than doubling, as a result of climate change.
In addition, increasing wars over supply chains show the pressures on resources, and the efforts countries are making to secure trading routes, and even to use supply chains themselves to spy on or damage adversaries. In an era of globalization, with increasing geopolitical conflict comes the increasing fragility of supply chains, when these rely on potentially at-conflict partners.
Simultaneously, increasing nuclear threats from Russia, geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Russia, European NATO partners, China, Iran, and North Korea have risen significantly over the past several years. These nuclear threats have also been discussed in the context of a new type of conflict: a nuclear attack in space. Such an event has been described as one that would have “broad, severe, and indiscriminate effects” for every nation that relies on satellites, solar cells, radios, and could damage electronics on a widespread basis.
The risk of solar flares and storms is also thought to pose a significant risk to the telecommunications networks, with these events able to knock out electronics and power around the globe. The next solar peak is expected in 2025, and a more powerful solar storm is more likely to occur during this time. While we may be able to predict a solar storm, its consequences could last weeks, or even months.
Alongside this, a coming H5N1 bird flu pandemic has also been described as “among the most foreseeable catastrophes in history,” and is widely thought to be on the verge of spilling over from animals to humans. With increasing pressures on wildlife habitats due to human encroachment, as well as factory farming conditions with densely packed livestock, contacts with animal viruses become increasingly common.
Finally, in addition to these environmental and international events and conflicts, the recent assassination of the CEO of UnitedHealthcare also shows the increasing social tensions on a domestic level as well. The U.S. has one of the highest healthcare costs per capita in the world, with anger spilling over against executives and those seen to be profiting from the system. Yale Insights notes that there has been an “emerging pattern of populists on both the far left and far right increasingly coming together to attack business,” a sign of greater dissatisfaction and unease with inequality among the American people. In addition to this, multiple assassination attempts were planned against Donald Trump, who survived a near-miss at a political rally in Pennsylvania. As The Guardian writes, “Assassinations are destabilizing,” and highlights the way in which the assassination of Franz Ferdinand provided the spark that set off World War I.
Each of these risks will now be examined in more detail, with its potential impacts. Then follows a discussion of the interconnections between these risks, compound effects, and potential risk management that could be carried out in response.
II. Analysis of Identified Risks
Each risk is examined in detail, encompassing its current state, potential impacts, and mitigation strategies.
A. Economic Risks
- First, this article will cover the economic risks coming into 2025. While many of the above risks can result in economic harm, the more explicit economic shifts involve the changes in the Chinese economy, the impacts of drought on the US breadbasket, and consequently, food prices. Weak Chinese Economy
From around the year 2000 onwards, China had one of the world’s fastest growing economies. Since 2020, partially because of declining birthrates and strict COVID-19 lockdown measures, the economy has slowed. As shown in Figure 1, from highs of 14% GDP growth to a rate now hovering closer to 4%, this weakening will likely have an impact on global and other domestic markets.
Figure 1: U.S. Bank. Annual GDP Growth in China
Some of China’s key sectors include services, manufacturing, and agriculture, with growth in advanced technology in recent years, including green technology. This can cause increased price reduction pressures on these products. The World Economic Forum notes, however, that China’s economy is plagued with issues, from “overbuilding, high debt levels and government regulations that have caused a real estate slump, as well as youth unemployment, depressed consumer spending, supply chain disruptions, an aging population and high local government debt levels.”
In response to these challenges, China has attempted to build economic resilience by promoting domestic consumption to reduce its reliance on exports. But so far, this effort has fallen short as domestic consumption remains only 30%-35% of GDP. For reference, the US domestic consumption is between 65%-70%. China is also channeling significant resources into technological innovation, aiming to solidify its position in key sectors such as artificial intelligence, renewable energy, EVs and semiconductors. Simultaneously, The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has introduced various stimulus packages to rejuvenate the economy. However, as Assistant Professor Ning Leng highlighted during a Washington Press Centre briefing, it remains “nearly impossible at this point to revive these markets,” particularly in “saturated and stagnant” sectors like real estate and infrastructure.
The consequences of this are that China is more likely to invest in projects with stable, middle-income countries with strong economic performance, and to try to push increased exports of steel, aluminum, and PVC. Professor Leng notes that China is likely to become more connected with the Global South, with Latin America becoming potentially increasingly important. She also explains that with a large population and growing food insecurity, China is likely to focus on agriculture trade and agriculture investment in the coming years. In addition, China is less likely to import high-end consumer products.
With geopolitical conflicts and changing international relations alongside, tensions between the U.S. and China could reduce global output and restrict the economy. The IMF noted that these tensions “could cost the global economy $7.4 trillion and cut global economic output by as much as 7%.” Developing economies may struggle to enter beneficial economic relationships across geopolitical boundaries, which could prevent them from gaining valuable opportunities in trade.
Another key area of concern is the technology decoupling between the U.S. and China, particularly in sectors like semiconductors and telecommunications. This decoupling has significant ramifications for global supply chains, innovation cycles, and market access, which could further destabilize international economic relations.
The consequences of China’s slowdown and economic challenges can ripple out through other markets. Some commentators believe that China’s effect on the economy risks “international contagion,” and that due to the historically strong economies of both the US and China, “a global recession could be brought about by the weakening of either country.” While the definitive consequences are yet to be seen, the risks and uncertainty already create issues in global markets and a lack of confidence for investors.
- Drought in US Breadbasket
Over the past several years, economic pressures in the agriculture sector have also become apparent domestically. The US breadbasket has faced several years of drought, with research finding that the droughts are “among the fastest-developing of the last seven decades.” These are known as “flash droughts” and are caused by unusually rapid drying.
This process and the likelihood of such droughts are intensifying as a result of climate change. Globally, synchronized “crop production losses”, i.e. simultaneous losses in grains and agricultural products as a result of droughts or other natural processes, are tightly related to climate change. One study also found that “strong evidence suggests that the frequency of these impacts will increase with global warming.”
Beyond the immediate economic impacts, such as rising food prices and inflation, prolonged drought conditions could also threaten long-term agricultural sustainability. Soil degradation, reduced water table levels, and loss of biodiversity are emerging concerns that could further compromise agricultural productivity in the U.S. breadbasket.
Throughout 2023 and 2024 such droughts were widely reported, particularly in relation to wheat crops. Coming into the final quarter of 2024, 47% of winter wheat regions were experiencing drought, down from a peak of 66% in 2022. As you can see in Figure 2 below, the percentage of crops that are facing at least “abnormally dry” conditions reaches, at times, 100%, with severe, exceptional and extreme droughts reaching around 50% of crops.
Figure 2. U.S. Wheat. Percentage of Wheat Acreage Affected by Drought (United States).
A 2023 study notes that “the slow, steady, and increasingly intense nature of drought is what gives this natural disaster its costly edge.” The dry conditions continuing to face US wheat crops could result in a shortage of supplies, creating increased prices and strong inflation. Higher prices as a result of shortages of grain crops also increase the prices of beef and other meats, due to the contribution of grain to animal feed. When prices rise, farmers also cull cattle herds to reduce losses, rather than hold on to stock that they cannot afford to feed.
McKinsey notes that the global population is primarily dependent on just four grains: wheat, corn, soy, and rice. Much of the global production of these grains takes place in China, the United States, India, Brazil, and Argentina. The U.S. currently ranks 5th in global wheat production, as shown in Figure 3, and is also a large producer of soy and corn.
Figure 3: USDA. 2023/2024 Wheat Production.
This means that reductions in food yield and lower food security can have big impacts on the global food supply and commodity prices. This is particularly the case, given that when the U.S. breadbasket experiences drought, other areas also often do, such as global droughts in 2024. The European Commission explains that “farmers in areas affected by prolonged droughts are facing reduced crop yields and crop failures, with potential impacts on income and local economies.”
These increases in commodity prices were already exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the war in Ukraine. Climate change will also continue to put pressure on agriculture, affecting numerous products both domestically and internationally.
B. Geopolitical Risks
Alongside these economic risks and potential uncertainties in food and other prices, several geopolitical risks are also prevalent going into 2025.
- Supply Chain War
With increasing globalization over the 20th century, supply chains and trading relationships are interconnected at a scale never seen before. The spread of these supply chains has created new avenues for countries to destabilize and attack each other, even without direct conflicts between militaries. An article in International Security in 2023 notes that countries now use “trade, finance, manufacturing, and investment policies to compete for power by waging ‘wars without gun smoke’.”
The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the fragility of global supply chains, leading to widespread delays and shortages in essential goods. This fragility has been further worsened by geopolitical conflicts, as nations weaponize trade dependencies to gain leverage. For instance, China’s control over rare earth metals essential for high-tech manufacturing has raised alarms in the West, leading to efforts to diversify supply chains. Meanwhile, the European Union has accelerated its strategic autonomy agenda, aiming to reduce reliance on external suppliers for critical resources.
In the midst of the wars between Russia and Ukraine, and Israel and Palestine, supply chains for Ukraine and Russia’s wheat and barley production, as well as trading routes in the Red Sea have been interrupted. Conflicts between the US and China have played out with the imposition, and promised imposition of tariffs, such as Donald Trump’s plans to “hit China with tariffs of 60 percent or more.”
Strategic interests in supply chains, as well as applying pressures or punishments to manufacturing and trade, have increasingly become a way of exerting power on a global scale. In addition, countries such as China have increasingly used traded products, particularly technology, as “backdoor” methods of gaining data and information that can be used to cause harm. With the proposed ban of TikTok in the US in response to fears of privacy issues and data collection problems, the consequences of increasing globalization and the way these connections can be exploited, become clear.
Moreover, the rise of protectionist policies has intensified the competition for technological dominance. Nations are racing to secure intellectual property rights, especially in emerging sectors like quantum computing and advanced semiconductors. This tech-centric approach to supply chain warfare highlights the importance of innovation and the vulnerabilities associated with cross-border technological dependencies.
- Assassination
On a domestic level, instability may also be increasing, as evidenced by the recent assassination of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson, as well as attempts on the life of former president Donald Trump. These attacks on high-profile political and business figures highlight an increasing wave of vigilante justice and political violence. While assassinations and attempts may have a long history in the US, recent years have been thankfully absent of such events. Vox notes that it is not only the US that has seen an increase in assassinations, pointing out that the UK, Brazil, Haiti, Ecuador, Japan, South Korea, and Slovakia, all suffered from attempted or successful killings of high-profile figures.
Peter Fraunholtz, assistant teaching professor in history and international affairs at Northeastern University, explains in an article by Northeastern Global News, that “there is a pattern of attempts taking place when a country’s political center is in a threatened or weakened state.” He likens the current state of the US to the time of 1968 when the status quo was being “shaken on so many different levels.” In addition, he believes there is scope for more violence to arise.
Bruce Hoffman, an expert on terrorism at the Council on Foreign Relations, speaking to a reporter at Business Insider, said that these assassinations and attempts are the “ineluctable outcome of the factors producing the rising global instability — namely, the growing political polarization leading to extremism that we see in a variety of western democracies and the collapse in confidence of the liberal democratic state leading to the growing embrace extremist or authoritarian solutions.”
The proliferation of social media platforms has also amplified extremist ideologies, enabling individuals to connect, organize, and act on shared grievances more effectively than ever before. Algorithms designed to maximize engagement inadvertently create echo chambers, further radicalizing users and increasing the likelihood of violent outcomes. These digital ecosystems serve as breeding grounds for conspiracy theories, fostering mistrust in institutions and catalyzing targeted violence. Meta’s recent announcement of the removal of fact-checking on Facebook and Instagram will create conditions for misinformation.
An increasing mistrust of political and business leaders, and low confidence in political and democratic systems, have also increased these risks. With partisan divisions described by some as deeper than ever and the “simmering rage” against the healthcare industry exposed by the reactions to Thompson’s murder, some have even described these killings as the “canary in the coal mine” that portends class or civil war.
It is hard to know the severity and seriousness of these cracks and challenges in American society, but tensions are increasing, and that instability is already on the rise.
- Russia Uses Nukes
Aside from these domestic issues, major global geopolitical risks are also dominant in the minds of many. In particular, the nuclear threats made by Russia, in the context of the war in Ukraine. According to the Federation of American Scientists, Russia’s nuclear arsenal sits at around 5000 warheads and is increasing. This is like the approximately 5000 warheads in the United States. Other powers such as China, North Korea, India and Pakistan have also been growing their arsenal in recent years. These trends can be seen in Figure 4 below:
Figure 4: Federation of American Scientists. Estimated Global Nuclear Warhead Inventories, 2024.
The Ukraine war, and the tensions between Russia and NATO countries, including the US, Germany, France, the UK, Poland, and others, have led to escalations in rhetoric about the use of nuclear weapons. As Brookings explains, Russia’s nuclear doctrine has gone through a number of changes in the past 15 years, with a September 2024 announcement lowering the threshold for Russian nuclear use. The new doctrine allows the use of nuclear weapons if Russia is attacked or its sovereignty or “territorial integrity” is threatened by a state that may not have nuclear weapons itself, but is being supported by a nuclear state. It also includes the protection of the sovereignty of Belarus.
Many consider these changes and updates to be “saber rattling”, but none can deny that the tensions are rising. It seems, for the most part, however, that changes to rhetoric and doctrine are intended as strategic deterrents. The recent killing of Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, a Russian general in charge of radiation, chemical and biological protection forces, also highlights the ways in which assassinations are still very commonly used for political and military purposes.
The risk of accidental escalation also remains significant. Historical incidents such as the 1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm, where a malfunctioning satellite system nearly led to a retaliatory strike, highlight the dangers of miscommunication and technical errors in high-stakes scenarios. In today’s context, cyberattacks targeting nuclear command systems introduce an additional layer of complexity, further heightening the risk of unintended conflict.
Despite increases in arsenals, continuing modernization, and changes to Russian doctrine, as the Proud Prophet military wargaming exercise showed, “nuclear war cannot be controlled,” and should be prevented at all costs. Accidental escalation and ambiguity also played a large role in the Cold War, with a number of near-miss incidents. In the Proud Prophet exercise, military experts found that every potential use of nuclear weapons resulted in escalation and destruction. Any large-scale use of nuclear weapons would result in immediate and severe humanitarian impacts, as well as long-term generational health issues and environmental consequences for any area that was bombed.
C. Technological Risks
- Alongside these geopolitical and economic risks, several technological risks are also simmering. Most notably, changes because of AI will likely have a significant impact on society and the economy in 2025. AI will also be employed in pursuit of geopolitical and economic goals, contributing to the rapid development of many other risks. Russia’s nuclear threats to attack satellites also creates a new world of warfare that has not been seen since the heights of the Cold War.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) has become one of the most talked-about technological developments in recent years. Its many risks and potential harms have cast a shadow on its numerous benefits to society and economic growth. For example, bias and discrimination in AI models, privacy and security issues, and the use of AI for malicious purposes have all been widely discussed.
AI is predicted to affect at least 40% of jobs globally in the near future, according to the IMF, and up to 60% in advanced economies. The IMF shows in Figure 5 below, the likely impact of AI on jobs in particular economies, and the extent to which these markets are exposed to disruption:
Figure 5. IMF. AI’s Impact on Jobs.
As a result, it is crucial that AI integration takes place so that jobs can be complemented rather than displaced. The risks to the global economy are significant and also unknown.
AI has been said to pose an existential risk to humanity, with fears from even the “godfather” of AI Geoffrey Hinton that runaway development may lead to super-intelligent neural networks that do not act with goodwill. However, few believe that this existential risk could come as soon as 2025, with many estimating the timeline as much longer. The Center for AI Safety explains that in any case, it is possible to lose control over AIs as they gain capabilities. They could “optimize flawed objectives, drift from their original goals, become power-seeking, resist shutdown, and engage in deception.”
Furthermore, the geopolitical implications of AI are increasingly profound, as nations compete to achieve supremacy in this transformative technology. Recognizing its potential to shape military strategies, cybersecurity, and economic dominance, this race has sparked concerns about an AI arms race, where the pursuit of power may outpace considerations for safety and ethical development. To address these risks, international cooperation and treaties are being proposed to ensure AI advancements remain beneficial and avoid destabilizing global relations.
Beyond competition, the malicious use of AI poses a significant threat. AI has amplified the risks associated with chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear weapons. For instance, while AI tools in healthcare have been used to develop life-saving medicines, these same technologies could be exploited to create harmful substances or even engineer catastrophic pandemics. An experiment conducted with classes at MIT found that AI could be used to create the next pandemic.
AI is also transforming warfare, particularly with the rise of autonomous weapons systems capable of identifying and engaging targets without human intervention. While these systems provide strategic advantages, they raise serious ethical and operational concerns, including accountability for errors or unintended harm. Establishing robust international regulations and oversight mechanisms is essential to mitigate these risks and ensure the responsible development and deployment of such technologies.
Evidence is also mounting that AI, and the creation of artificial images, videos, and audio clips, can be used for disinformation and political manipulation. The increasing prevalence of AI-generated text and search-engine responses can also lead to misinformation through AI “hallucinations” that provide readers with incorrect information about political candidates, current affairs, and other important issues. In 2024, potential voters in New Hampshire already faced a robocall using the fraudulently-generated AI-generated voice of President Biden.
Moreover, AI’s role in financial systems has introduced new vulnerabilities. Algorithms drive stock trading, predict market trends, and manage investment portfolios, but their interconnected nature could lead to cascading failures if one system malfunctions or is compromised. Financial regulators are exploring frameworks to monitor AI-driven activities and ensure system resilience.
One last thought, today’s advanced AI will be the least capable AI. This new technology will only grow faster, more effective and potentially dangerous from here.
- Space War on Satellites
With details that seem to be taken directly from a sci-fi novel, the risk of nuclear war in space is also present, going into 2025. Satellites play an increasingly large role in the communication, defense, and economic networks that comprise modern infrastructure and parts of daily life. Satellites have even been able to provide internet in areas like Ukraine through Starlink, where other services have been cut off or destroyed.
In 2022, Russia launched an “unusual” satellite, Cosmos 2663, which is thought to be a potentially anti-satellite weapon. Then, in 2024, Cosmos 2576 and other satellites were launched, with NPR describing Cosmos 2576 as a “space weapon”. In addition, in 2024 Russia also vetoed (for the second time) a UN Security Council measure aimed at preventing an arms race in space. To date, space has not become heavily militarized, although it is used for military satellites and air defense purposes.
The increasing reliance on satellite technology for global navigation, weather forecasting, and financial transactions highlights the critical need to protect these assets. Experts emphasize the importance of building redundancy into satellite systems and exploring technologies such as satellite constellations, which distribute capabilities across multiple units to mitigate the impact of potential attacks.
The consequences of a nuclear detonation in space would be significant. Experiments such as “Starfish Prime” have shown that a nuclear space blast would leave “a high level of radiation in low Earth orbit,” disrupting satellites, solar cells and radios. The Institute of International Relations in Prague notes that the deployment of weapons in space leaves “the threat of a dangerous escalation of tensions and the dynamics of a spiral of arms races and mutual deterrence, with the concomitant phenomenon of action-reaction in US and NATO relations with Russia.”
The deployment of more robust satellites may be one way to alleviate this risk, as well as radiation hardening and other approaches. But these things take time, and it appears that Russia has already launched “uniquely dangerous” weapons into orbit.
D. Environmental and Health Risks
Because of climate change and increasing human infrastructure expansion, several environmental risks are also rising. The chances of a massive solar flare or storm are also higher for 2025 than they have been in the past, due to a solar maximum during this period. Many of these risks compound, such as storms increasing the likelihood of poor health conditions, leading to easier disease spread.
- Bird Flu Pandemic
Named as one of the “most foreseeable” risks coming in 2025, a potential bird flu pandemic has been widely discussed by virologists. The death of the first human from bird flu on 1.6.25 has signified a significant shift forward in the risk of a larger outbreak. The H5N1 version of the flu virus has been spreading through flocks of wild birds since 2021, spilling over into cattle in 2022. Bird flu spillover cases to humans are also increasing, with several infections throughout the US, through cattle, poultry, and unknown sources. Once H5N1 has a high number of human infections, the risks of human-to-human transmission increase. When one human host is infected with the H5N1 virus, as well as a more people-friendly flu virus, the two viral strains risk swapping parts and increasing the transmissibility of bird flu to humans. Figure 6 below shows recent figures from December 2024:
Figure 6. Statista. California Records the Most Bird Flu Cases
Some scientists even wonder why the bird flu pandemic hasn’t already started, given the current conditions. Louise Moncla, a virologist with the University of Pennsylvania even states that from her perspective, “this feels the closest to an H5 pandemic that I’ve seen.” Some severely sick teenagers and children in the US have heightened concerns.
In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, it’s possible that we have learned enough from previous experiences, to handle another viral outbreak. On the other hand, widespread vaccine hesitancy and pushback against lockdown measures may mean that this time, the population is not so willing to go along with the recommendations of health agencies. In addition, even though vaccine stockpiles are increasing, they are still not sufficient to meet all of the vaccine needs of the population, in the case that a pandemic breaks out. What’s more is that many essential workers and healthcare workers became overburdened and burned out during the COVID-19 pandemic and have said that they would not do it again. Bird flu cases so far have been mild, but fatality rates from cases between 2003 and 2024 hover around 49%. This could be because asymptomatic or mild cases go undetected, but is nonetheless alarming.
The current spread is most affecting farm workers who have direct contact with cattle and birds, although the presence of cases with no known contact with animals is concerning. Many countries have increased border surveillance and testing mechanisms to try to catch any viral spread early. Milk testing throughout the US has also increased, looking for signs of contamination, particularly in raw milk. While these measures will hopefully be sufficient to stop any virus in its tracks and prevent spread, like in successful interventions against mpox, other virologists believe that it’s simply a “numbers game”, and a matter of time before H5N1 kicks off.
- Successive Massive Storms (Hurricanes, Tornadoes, Typhoons)
The heating effects of climate change are predominantly seen in the world’s oceans, with over 90% of global warming taking place there. This heating in the ocean leads to more powerful storms and hurricanes, with higher wind speeds. This also results in higher storm surges, and therefore more flooding for coastal populations. Figure 7 below shows the increases in global sea surface temperature for 2023 and 2024, which lie high above historical records.
Figure 7: CBS Austin. Record Ocean Heat.
Statistical trends show that storms are also becoming more frequent and that as climate change worsens, the occurrence of high-intensity storms will increase.
It has already become clear in Florida and the southeast US that storms in quick succession leave communities, businesses, and insurance companies reeling. After Helene and Milton, some insurance companies have even begun to pull out of the state, or have gone insolvent.
When infrastructure and emergency response services are already overwhelmed, or funding has already been allocated to the recovery from one disaster, further disasters in quick succession can quickly lead to emergencies with little respite. This leaves vulnerable people in a state of emergency unable to receive the support they need, or lacking rebuilding services and recovery efforts. Going into 2025, governments and businesses need to be prepared for not just the possibility of one intense storm, but many.
- Massive Solar Flare
A relatively new risk that has been covered by the media recently is the possibility of a massive solar flare or solar storm in 2025. This is because the solar cycle, which peaks every 11 years, will reach a maximum next year. Solar flares and storms can be dangerous, particularly more so now that much of the world relies on electronic devices and communication services, including the Internet. In 2024 solar flares or “coronal mass ejections” happened frequently, leading to aurora and Northern Lights phenomena becoming visible in many places that they do not usually occur.
In 2024, one of these events in October knocked out high-frequency radio communications for parts of Africa for around 20 minutes.
Scientists have noted that these types of events are complex and difficult to predict, and there is no certainty that a solar storm or flare will happen next year, although there is more solar activity during peaks. Worries have arisen because of events in the past, such as the 1859 “Carrington Event”, the strongest geomagnetic storm ever recorded. This storm caused fires in telegraph stations, and a similar event could cause widespread fires and outages in electrical transformers. The fact is that the world is ill-prepared for another event of a similar magnitude, if one were to occur.
These types of storms do not have any risks to human life or health but could be disruptive for economic and communications networks. They can also be disruptive for satellites, aircraft navigation, GPS, and spacecraft. Other commentators have predicted that intense storms could even knock satellites out of orbit, shut off the entire internet, and plunge the world into a global blackout.
While these risks are severe, the likelihood, however, of a solar storm coming in 2025 so strong that it knocks out communications, is small. Important to note, however, is that while the likelihood year-on-year could be small, there will be a large solar storm at some point, sooner or later. New research has shown that these types of events occur around once every 100 years, meaning that a strong solar event may be on the horizon. Communications and other networks will need to invest in resilience and strengthening measures soon, to ensure future-proofing against such events.
III. Discussion
A. Interconnections Between Risks
- Economic and Geopolitical Linkages
One of the main issues with these diverse risks is that many of them are interlinked. First, geopolitical tensions are tightly bound with economic relationships between countries, which is precisely how supply chain and trade wars have become so widespread.
Economic downturns can also exacerbate both domestic and international tensions, and vice versa. When food prices rise, both political and civil unrest increases, leading to potentially unpredictable consequences. With political instability and economic downturns, political leadership in countries like Russia or Iran may turn to power-grabbing measures to prove their strength and competence. There is some evidence that it is not when great powers are growing that they are most dangerous, but when they are in decline, also known as “Thucydides Trap”.
Geopolitical tensions also create ripple effects in corporate sectors. Companies reliant on global trade or raw materials sourced from politically unstable regions face higher risks of operational disruptions, increased costs, and reputational damage. For instance, semiconductor shortages stemming from trade disputes have already disrupted industries ranging from automotive to consumer electronics. Furthermore, economic sanctions imposed by one country can lead to retaliatory measures, intensifying global instability. This interconnectedness highlights the need for a strategic approach that balances national interests with economic interdependence.
- Technological Vulnerabilities and Environmental Challenges
In addition, technological advancements such as AI, as well as environmental challenges relating to climate change, solar activity, and the spread of pathogens, can all interact in unpredictable ways. While AI can be used in pursuit of solutions for some of the world’s biggest problems, it can also create new issues that cause harm to both society and the economy.
The use of AI for malicious purposes could involve spreading diseases or epidemics on purpose, or planting disinformation about vaccine effectiveness and health bodies. Climate change also puts pressure on the agriculture sector and can create increasingly challenging habitats for wild animals. This leads to the increasing likelihood of disease spillover into livestock or human populations, meaning that such issues will become more frequent.
Disinformation spread through digital methods can also prevent action on climate change that is sorely needed for businesses and governments to move towards green energy and resilience measures. As our economic and communications systems also become more reliant on specific technological approaches (cloud) and mechanisms, they also develop an increasing vulnerability to damage, such as from hackers, security issues, and solar flares. Clearly, attacks on satellites could have major impacts on the technological infrastructure of our world.
Moreover, AI-driven tools that automate decision-making processes in sectors like energy, healthcare, and financial services are inherently vulnerable to environmental disruptions such as natural disasters or cyberattacks. For example, a widespread power grid failure caused by a solar flare could compromise AI systems managing energy distribution, resulting in prolonged outages and cascading failures in dependent systems. Additionally, misinformation campaigns amplified by AI could undermine public trust in critical institutions, making coordinated responses to climate or health crises even more challenging.
B. Compound Effects and Cascading Failures
- Scenario Analysis
One potential scenario that could arise, is, for example, the failure of multiple breadbaskets simultaneously, due to increased drought. With high food prices and shortages, social unrest and instability may result, leading to the assassination of high-profile business or political leaders. Attempts to gain control of supply chains and resources (for example, in the Middle East, wars over access to water resources are already common), could escalate. Storms and other weather events, as well as drought conditions and failing crops in the Global South, could prompt mass migration, creating further social tensions and economic pressures on Global North economies.
In a destabilized political environment, populism as well as fascism and other undesirable political beliefs can become widespread, leading to political leadership that is unstable, ill-considered, and could escalate to the use of satellite attacks or nuclear warfare. During these events, health systems may fail, diseases are more likely to spread, and biological or other weapons, as well as the weaponization and malicious use of AI to control or harm a population, are not unimaginable.
Another plausible scenario involves the breakdown of global financial systems due to cyberattacks targeting major financial institutions. In such a case, the simultaneous failure of payment networks, stock exchanges, and banking systems could paralyze economic activity worldwide. This could exacerbate existing tensions over resource allocation, driving nations to adopt isolationist policies or engage in aggressive actions to secure essential commodities. Coupled with environmental disasters like successive hurricanes, the resulting chaos could overwhelm international aid systems and further destabilize regions already on the brink.
- Potential for Escalated Global Crises
Interconnected systems have the potential to create significant gains for all involved. However, the interconnection of such systems also leads to escalated crises in which numerous systems are so tightly bound that they collapse or crack simultaneously. Each of these individual risks is significant, but the ways in which risks connect should raise alarm among decision-makers, and steps to create mitigation and resilience measures.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, it became clear that global supply chains could suffer stress within hours, days and weeks, and that the continuation of modern society relied on the smooth functioning of a very large system. The war in Ukraine also made it clear to many Europeans, with sudden increases in gas, electricity, and food prices, that events thousands of miles away could create significant pressures and stresses on businesses, individuals, and governments.
The risks going into 2025 show significant potential for a global crisis, which could be caused by the failure of any one of several points in the larger system.
IV. Conclusion
A. Summary of Key Findings
The primary risks going into 2025 are widespread. From climate-change-induced shocks to the breadbasket, a declining Chinese economy, and threats from Russia both on land and in space, the global environment is challenging. Political tensions and increasing assassination attempts and successes show increasing political divisions and populism. Alongside all this, AI threatens to upend economic and social orders and provides a rapidly increasing new threat in terms of military and malicious use. Solar flares and potential pandemics round out the list of risks that can have significant and ongoing impacts on both the global economy and human society at large.
The risks with the highest potential impact and likelihood are those of rapid change in relation to AI, global weather patterns shifting because of climate change (and therefore increasing prices, insecurity, and pressures on supply chains), and geopolitical shifts in relation to the roles of China and Russia.
B. Future Outlook
Beyond 2025 many of these risks are likely to worsen, or at least to become more complex. For businesses, governments and individuals facing these risks, the best approach is continuous monitoring, risk assessment, and mitigation efforts, with data-driven decision-making based on high quality data.
- Anticipating Evolving Risks Beyond 2025
Many of these risks are, to a certain extent, likely to increase in severity. In part, this depends on what actions are taken by individuals, businesses, governmental and intergovernmental bodies. Without consistent action on climate change or significant technology investment in reducing CO2, global warming and other weather changes will continue to impact businesses, industry sectors, and the global economy, as well as individual livelihoods. Geopolitical tensions are also likely to only increase, with the rise and return of nuclear and economic powers such as China, North Korea, India, Iran, and Russia.
As geopolitical dynamics evolve, regions like the Indo-Pacific are expected to become hotspots for both economic opportunities and conflicts. Trade routes, territorial disputes, and resource competition will play increasingly prominent roles in shaping international relations. Additionally, emerging economies may experience both unprecedented growth and heightened vulnerabilities, with the potential for economic crises exacerbated by poor governance or external pressures.
Several health analysts have already noted that pandemics are only likely to become more frequent, due to pressures on ecosystems, greater density in cities, changing vaccination rates, and increased globalization. While AI may help to tackle many of these problems, it may also become part of the problem to a lesser or greater extent, depending on the ways in which and the extent to which it is regulated, or employed maliciously. Other risks like solar flares, as well as regional or national economic shifts, may be “one off” events that come and go but do not follow a unidirectional trajectory.
The interaction of these risks with technological developments is another area of concern. As reliance on technology grows, disruptions caused by cyberattacks, data breaches, or failures in critical digital infrastructure could trigger cascading failures across multiple sectors. For instance, a cyberattack on energy grids could paralyze industries, disrupt supply chains, and exacerbate economic inequalities, particularly in regions lacking robust digital defenses.
The way in which these risks collide, and combine is very clearly a global issue, with potentially significant impacts not just for economic or political systems, but for human health and life itself.
- The Importance of Proactive Risk Management
All these risks need to be approached proactively. With consistent and concerted intergovernmental efforts, geopolitical tensions can be soothed and mitigated. Efforts are also already underway to combat some of the most severe effects of climate change, although more can certainly be done to shift towards a green energy system.
As noted, employing AI in service of human needs is one way that risks can be mitigated, with the help of AI experts to develop additional guardrails and safety mechanisms to prevent harm.
By building robust and resilient monitoring and response systems, more data can be gathered on each of these risks, and appropriate solutions developed. Individual governments, intergovernmental agencies, business coalitions, and smaller community groups all play a role in this process. The interconnected nature of the risk environment going into 2025 highlights the ways in which the response to these crises also requires a holistic, interconnected approach.
Furthermore, fostering public-private partnerships can enhance resilience by leveraging the strengths of both sectors. Governments can provide regulatory frameworks and funding, while private enterprises drive innovation and implement scalable solutions. This collaborative approach can help address multifaceted challenges, from climate adaptation to AI governance. What’s key is for government not to impede the lighting progress being made on this incredible technology, but to foster innovation with guardrails to protect the public from malicious use.
No one agency or part of society can manage these risks alone. When businesses, communities and individuals can suffer greatly because of poor risk analysis and mitigation, taking steps to confront, anticipate, and hedge against these risks appropriately can only pay off for all involved.
